Asset Class Moves Feb 22 2013

Stocks were up 0.88%
Bonds were up 0.05%
US Dollar was nearly unchanged versus a basket of world currencies and the Euro.
Asian and European stocks were up.
Gold was nearly unchanged
Oil was up 0.56%

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Commentary:

As you can infer from the combination of numbers above, today was a good day to be invested in US assets.  The base US currency rose.  US Bonds rose.  US Stocks rose.

Knock on wood.

Stocks

Foolish or wise, I have not reduced my asset allocation invested in stocks in the last several months.  So, understandably, Wednesday and Thursday of this week were no fun.

Gold

I don’t understand why gold is getting beaten up currently, trading around its 52 week low price, but I’ve come to respect the technical chart “death cross,” when the 50 day moving average price of something passes below its 200 day moving average price. That is sometimes a near term bearish sign.

Having said that, I could see gold recovering in May, from wherever it is at in May. Why is my timing expectation so specific?  That’s complicated. But even though the “death cross” suggests downward price likelihood for a while, I don’t think that will be for a long while. I expect that if stocks fall drop in May, Gold will more likely conversely rise.

With nearly all the world’s governments devaluing their currency, I’m bullish on gold in the long term.  Having said that, I own no gold investments currently . . . not yet.

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Disclaimer:  These posts are not written by a professional or licensed financial advisor.  There’s nothing for sale here.  This is just a discussion forum.  No one should make any decisions based on representations made on this informal blog.  These posts are just one layperson’s opinions, concerns, and observations about asset classes – a part of larger, never-ending discussions.  Any signigicant financial decisions should be discussed with at least a few trusted and experienced financial advisors before acting.

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